Ecology of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, 2012-2020: A machine learning modelling analysis.

The ongoing enzootic circulation of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in the Middle East and North Africa is increasingly raising the concern about the possibility of its recombination with other human-adapted coronaviruses, particularly the pandemic SARS-CoV-2. We aim to provide an updated picture about ecological niches of MERS-CoV and associated socio-environmental drivers. Based on 356 confirmed MERS cases with animal contact reported to the WHO and 63 records of animal infections collected from the literature as of 30 May 2020, we assessed ecological niches of MERS-CoV using an ensemble model integrating three machine learning algorithms. With a high predictive accuracy (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 91.66% in test data), the ensemble model estimated that ecologically suitable areas span over the Middle East, South Asia and the whole North Africa, much wider than the range of reported locally infected MERS cases and test-positive animal samples. Ecological suitability for MERS-CoV was significantly associated with high levels of bareland coverage (relative contribution = 30.06%), population density (7.28%), average temperature (6.48%) and camel density (6.20%). Future surveillance and intervention programs should target the high-risk populations and regions informed by updated quantitative analyses.

The role of selenium in severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome: an integrative analysis of surveillance data and clinical data.

OBJECTIVES: Selenium deficiency can be associated with increased susceptibility to some viral infections and even more severe diseases. In this study, we aimed to examine whether this association applies to severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS). METHOD: An observational study was conducted based on the data of 13,305 human SFTS cases reported in mainland China from 2010 to 2020. The associations among incidence, case fatality rate of SFTS, and crop selenium concentration at the county level were explored. The selenium level in a cohort of patients with SFTS was tested, and its relationship with clinical outcomes was evaluated. RESULTS: The association between selenium-deficient crops and the incidence rate of SFTS was confirmed by multivariate Poisson analysis, with an estimated incidence rate ratio (IRR, 95% confidence interval [CI]) of 4.549 (4.215-4.916) for moderate selenium-deficient counties and 16.002 (14.706-17.431) for severe selenium-deficient counties. In addition, a higher mortality rate was also observed in severe selenium-deficient counties with an IRR of 1.409 (95% CI: 1.061-1.909). A clinical study on 120 patients with SFTS showed an association between serum selenium deficiency and severe SFTS (odds ratio, OR: 2.94; 95% CI: 1.00-8.67) or fatal SFTS (OR: 7.55; 95% CI: 1.14-50.16). CONCLUSION: Selenium deficiency is associated with increased susceptibility to SFTS and poor clinical outcomes.

Epidemiology and evolution of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, 2012-2020.

BACKGROUND: The ongoing transmission of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in the Middle East and its expansion to other regions are raising concerns of a potential pandemic. An in-depth analysis about both population and molecular epidemiology of this pathogen is needed. METHODS: MERS cases reported globally as of June 2020 were collected mainly from World Health Organization official reports, supplemented by other reliable sources. Determinants for case fatality and spatial diffusion of MERS were assessed with Logistic regressions and Cox proportional hazard models, respectively. Phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses were performed to examine the evolution and migration history of MERS-CoV. RESULTS: A total of 2562 confirmed MERS cases with 150 case clusters were reported with a case fatality rate of 32.7% (95% CI: 30.9‒34.6%). Saudi Arabia accounted for 83.6% of the cases. Age of ≥ 65 years old, underlying conditions and ≥ 5 days delay in diagnosis were independent risk factors for death. However, a history of animal contact was associated with a higher risk (adjusted OR = 2.97, 95% CI: 1.10-7.98) among female cases < 65 years but with a lower risk (adjusted OR = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.18-0.51) among male cases ≥ 65 years old. Diffusion of the disease was fastest from its origin in Saudi Arabia to the east, and was primarily driven by the transportation network. The most recent sub-clade C5.1 (since 2013) was associated with non-synonymous mutations and a higher mortality rate. Phylogeographic analyses pointed to Riyadh of Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi of the United Arab Emirates as the hubs for both local and international spread of MERS-CoV. CONCLUSIONS: MERS-CoV remains primarily locally transmitted in the Middle East, with opportunistic exportation to other continents and a potential of causing transmission clusters of human cases. Animal contact is associated with a higher risk of death, but the association differs by age and sex. Transportation network is the leading driver for the spatial diffusion of the disease. These findings how this pathogen spread are helpful for targeting public health surveillance and interventions to control endemics and to prevent a potential pandemic.

A familial cluster of COVID-19 infection in a northern Chinese region (preprint)

Background Currently, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread worldwide and become a global health concern. Here, we report a familial cluster of COVID-19 infection in a northern Chinese region and share our local experience.Methods A familial cluster of six patients infected with severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was included for analysis. The demographic data, clinical features, laboratory examinations, and epidemiological characteristics of enrolled cases were collected and analyzed.Results Two family members (Cases 1 and 2) had Hubei exposure history and were admitted to the hospital with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19; eight familial members who had contact with them during the incubation period were isolated in a hospital. Finally, the condition of four members (Cases 3, 4, 5, and 6) was as follows. Case 3 had negative SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR results but was suspected to have COVID-19 because of radiographic abnormalities. Cases 4 and 5 developed COVID-19. Due to positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR results, Case 6 was considered an asymptomatic carrier. In addition, four close contacts did not have evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection.Conclusions Our findings suggest that COVID-19 has infectivity during the incubation period and preventive quarantine is effective for controlling an outbreak of COVID-19 infection.

Digestive system involvement of novel coronavirus infection: Prevention and control infection from a gastroenterology perspective.

An epidemic of an acute respiratory syndrome caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Wuhan, China, now known as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), beginning in December 2019, has attracted an intense amount of attention worldwide. As the natural history and variety of clinical presentations of this disease unfolds, extrapulmonary symptoms of COVID-19 have emerged, especially in the digestive system. While the respiratory mode of transmission is well known and is probably the principal mode of transmission of this disease, a possibility of the fecal-oral route of transmission has also emerged in various case series and clinical scenarios. In this review article, we summarize four different aspects in published studies to date: (a) gastrointestinal manifestations of COVID-19; (b) microbiological and virological investigations; (c) the role of fecal-oral transmission; and (d) prevention and control of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the digestive endoscopy room. A timely understanding of the relationship between the disease and the digestive system and implementing effective preventive measures are of great importance for a favorable outcome of the disease and can help climnicians to mitigate further transmission by taking appropriate measures.